Yesterday, where I live, it was supposed to be 65 degrees
and sunny. They’ve been saying it was coming for a week or better. Great
January weather, right? And I, for one, was looking forward to it. Well, turns
out the high was only 47 and we saw not one ray of sunshine. Conditions were
mostly foggy with a bit of drizzle.
Why is it that weather forecasters never suffer any ill
effects for being wrong? This is a fairly well-paid profession yet, they are
notoriously wrong in their predictions. It’s a pattern. I think half the time
their brain is in a fog. But, somehow, they keep their job.
I can only imagine if I turned in a similar performance at
my job as a truck driver. I’m quite certain I wouldn’t be around after a single
day. I don’t think I’m alone. In fact, I’m pretty sure most people would be
fired if they came anywhere close to the abysmal track record of
meteorologists. Most bosses do not appreciate incompetence—especially when it’s
on-going.
These days meteorology has moved away from the old weather
vanes and anemometers to some rather expensive and sophisticated technology;
Doppler radar, satellite imaging, weather balloons with sensors, forecasting
software with weather models, not to mention theses guys go to college to study
weather patterns and the climate. Despite the advancements, accuracy rates are
no better than they were fifty years ago. Really!
In the sixties, weather forecasters held an aggregate
average of approximately 70 percent. Some days were better than others,
obviously, as were some forecasters in any given time. But the average for them
all was roughly 70 percent.
Today’s meteorologists like to claim they are far better at
predicting the weather and that they are continually advancing. I think that’s
just to justify the millions of dollars spent on equipment—meteorologist’s
toys. One guy I looked up, while researching for this post, maintains he has a
95 percent accuracy. But if you look, you’ll discover this includes next day
and even same day forecasts! Well, even I could do pretty well by
glancing out the window—probably get close to 100 percent accuracy, I’m
thinking. But a true forecast, as in, not waiting until the weather is
happening or about to happen, is still averaging about 70 percent.
I looked up the statistics on weather forecasts for my area
and found that the average from the top ten forecasting services, which
includes, The Weather Channel, AccuWeather, and the National Weather Service,
was 65.31 percent for the last month and 65.86 percent for the last year. So
much for the meteorologist’s claims of improvement.
In school, I had teacher who pointed out that if you predict
the exact same weather for tomorrow as was experienced today and you’ll have a
70 percent accuracy. No college, no study of weather patterns, and no
equipment. And you’ll do just as well as the weatherman—at least over a period
of time. So again, why do these guys keep their job?
Incidentally, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, long ridiculed by
many, including meteorologists, has about an 65 percent accuracy rating—and
that’s a running total all the way back to when they started, in 1792! Some
years, they were as low as 52 percent but other years it’s been as high as 80.
Seems to me that meteorologists could save a lot of time and money by just buying
a subscription to the Old Farmer’s Almanac!
Oh, and what did the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast for this
week where I live? Mild temperatures (39 degrees) and a little rain. Not
perfect, but definitely better than the weatherman!
Bruce A. Borders is the author of
more than a dozen books, including: Inside Room
913, Over My Dead Body, The Journey, Miscarriage Of Justice, and The Wynn Garrett Series. Available in ebook and
paperback on iTunes, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Kobo, Diesel Books, and
Smashwords, or at www.bruceabordersbooks.weebly.com.
Amazon Profile - http://www.amazon.com/Bruce-A.-Borders/e/B006SOLWQS.
Bruce A. Borders also serves as the Vice-President of Rave Reviews Book Club.
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